SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to make mutation
from wild type. From November/2021, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 lineages are widely
distributed in the world, and these lineages are the basic type currently.
Furthermore, B.1.617 lineages startes to be dominant in the world. These
lineages have immune escape mutation and high ACE2 binding ability, so they are
troublesome both epidemiologically and medically. Neutralization ability of
mRNA vaccine in vitro significantly decreases in immune escape type (i.e. E484K
mutation), but cellular immunity emerged from mRNA vaccine has
cross-reactivity. Therefore, epidemiological evaluation of vaccination in large
scale participants against each lineage (B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and B.1.617) is
crucial.
Hiam
Chemaitelly, Hadi M. Yassine, Fatiha M. Benslimane et al. evaluate
epidemiological data against each variant, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 and
longitudinally(1). I hope to share a part of these contents with the global
important readers and that positive social effect of vaccination is confirmed
each other.
//Condition(1)//---
Country: Qatar
Evaluation Period: From 28/December/2020 to
10/May/2021
Vaccine type: mRNA-1273(Moderna)
//Result(1)//---
They evaluate the relative ratio PCR
positive/negative.
(The ratio of Unvaccinated group is set
about by 1)
Left value (Vaccinated) / Right value
(Unvaccinated)
---
(B.1.1.7 variant against infection)
*0-6 days after first dose
Positive: 166 / 23,661 Negative 170 /
23,657 Vaccine efficacy 2.4%
*7-13 days after first dose
Positive: 202 / 23,681 Negative 187 / 23,696
Vaccine efficacy 0.0%
*14-20 days after first dose
Positive: 32 / 23,669 Negative 173 / 23,528
Vaccine efficacy 81.6%
*21-27 days after first dose (not yet
second dose)
Positive: 9 / 23,656 Negative 160 / 23,505
Vaccine efficacy 94.4%
*0-6 days after second dose
Positive: 4 / 21,454 Negative 196 / 21,262
Vaccine efficacy 98.0%
*7-13 days after second dose
Positive: 1 / 23,669 Negative 119 / 23,528
Vaccine efficacy 99.2%
---
(B.1.351 variant against infection)
*0-6 days after first dose
Positive: 535 / 47,359 Negative 558 / 47,336
Vaccine efficacy 4.2%
*7-13 days after first dose
Positive: 854 / 47,372 Negative 566 /
47,660 Vaccine efficacy 0%
*14-20 days after first dose
Positive: 270 / 47,329 Negative 516 / 47,083
Vaccine efficacy 47.9%
*21-27 days after first dose (not yet
second dose)
Positive: 114 / 47,249 Negative 431 /
46,932 Vaccine efficacy 73.7%
*0-6 days after second dose
Positive: 42 / 45,280 Negative 719 / 44,603
Vaccine efficacy 94.2%
*7-13 days after second dose
Positive: 18 / 45,064 Negative 498 / 44,584
Vaccine efficacy 96.4%
---
(Both variants against any severe symptom
case)
*0-6 days after first dose
Positive: 53 / 4,012 Negative 65 / 4,000
Vaccine efficacy 18.7%
*7-13 days after first dose
Positive: 85 / 4,016 Negative 68 / 4,033
Vaccine efficacy 0%
*14-20 days after first dose
Positive: 18 / 4,007 Negative 60 / 3,965
Vaccine efficacy 70.3%
*21-27 days after first dose (not yet
second dose)
Positive: 4 / 3,997 Negative 50 / 3,951
Vaccine efficacy 92.1%
*0-6 days after second dose
Positive: 0 / 3,432 Negative 62 / 3,370
Vaccine efficacy 100%
*7-13 days after second dose
Positive: 0 / 3,399 Negative 29 / 3,370
Vaccine efficacy 100%
//Discussion//---
(Special note)
*Protection effect against Infection and
severe symptom development is needed at least 14 days after the first
vaccination.
*Severe case after second vaccination
against both variants hasn’t been confirmed. Therefore, hospital burden against
SARS-CoV-2 significantly decreases, and social activity could become partly
open.
*This protection effect is quite high more
than 90% after the second dose also against B.1.351 lineage having immune
escape mutation.
Therefore, even if escape mutation decreasing
antibody neutralization ability is emerged, we could protect infection and
severe symptom by the booster dose.
---
From
the data of 21 to 27 days after the first dose, only one dose can have
relatively high vaccine efficacy about by 70% (even in B.1.351 lineage).
Therefore, if the number of vaccine is lack in each region, we can prioritize
one dose for the persons as many as possible like the strategy of the United
Kingdom, meaning delay of second dose schedule(1).
In Israel
and the Unite kingdom, the number of infection increases again after
vaccination of the large persons. The long-term epidemiological data is needed
in order to be prepared for post-vaccination society. Do the elderly persons
need to vaccinate the third dose? In post-vaccination society, timing of the
third and forth dose needs to be considered.
//Contributions//---
H.C. codesigned the study, performed
statistical analyses and cowrote the first draft of the article. L.J.A.-R.
conceived and codesigned the study, led the statistical analyses and cowrote
the first draft of the article. A.A.B. and R.B. codesigned the study. All
authors contributed to data collection and acquisition, database development,
discussion and interpretation of the results, and to the writing of the
manuscript. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.
(Reference)
(1)
Hiam Chemaitelly, Hadi M. Yassine, Fatiha
M. Benslimane, Hebah A. Al Khatib, Patrick Tang, Mohammad R. Hasan, Joel A.
Malek, Peter Coyle, Houssein H. Ayoub, Zaina Al Kanaani, Einas Al Kuwari, Andrew
Jeremijenko, Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal, Ali Nizar Latif, Riyazuddin Mohammad
Shaik, Hanan F. Abdul Rahim, Gheyath K. Nasrallah, Mohamed Ghaith Al Kuwari,
Hamad Eid Al Romaihi, Mohamed H. Al-Thani, Abdullatif Al Khal, Adeel A. Butt,
Roberto Bertollini & Laith J. Abu-Raddad
mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness
against the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants and severe COVID-19 disease in Qatar
Nature Medicine (2021)
---
Author information
Affiliations
Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group,
Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation–Education
City, Doha, Qatar
Hiam Chemaitelly & Laith J. Abu-Raddad
World Health Organization Collaborating
Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted
Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell
University, Qatar Foundation–Education City, Doha, Qatar
Hiam Chemaitelly & Laith J. Abu-Raddad
Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU
Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
Hadi M. Yassine, Fatiha M. Benslimane,
Hebah A. Al Khatib, Peter Coyle & Gheyath K. Nasrallah
Department of Biomedical Science, College
of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
Hadi M. Yassine, Fatiha M. Benslimane,
Hebah A. Al Khatib & Gheyath K. Nasrallah
Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine,
Doha, Qatar
Patrick Tang & Mohammad R. Hasan
Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell
Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
Joel A. Malek
Department of Genetic Medicine, Weill Cornell
Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
Joel A. Malek
Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
Peter Coyle, Zaina Al Kanaani, Einas Al
Kuwari, Andrew Jeremijenko, Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal, Ali Nizar Latif, Riyazuddin
Mohammad Shaik, Abdullatif Al Khal & Adeel A. Butt
Wellcome–Wolfson Institute for Experimental
Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, UK
Peter Coyle
Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and
Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
Houssein H. Ayoub
College of Health Sciences, QU Health,
Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
Hanan F. Abdul Rahim
Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha,
Qatar
Mohamed Ghaith Al Kuwari
Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
Hamad Eid Al Romaihi, Mohamed H. Al-Thani
& Roberto Bertollini
Department of Population Health Sciences,
Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
Adeel A. Butt & Laith J. Abu-Raddad
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